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Syukuro Manabe
AOSP, Princeton University
Date: September 17, 2008
3:00 pm: Conversation and Cookies in Room 108 Atmospheric Sciences Building
3:30 pm: Seminar in Room 144 Loomis Laboratory
This presentation explores the role of the ocean in global warming using climate models, in which a general circulation model of the ocean is combined with that of the atmosphere. I show that the ocean delays global warming in those regions of the ocean where water mixes deeply through convection and/or isopycnal mixing. For example, the warming is delayed greatly and is small over very extensive regions in the Circumpolar Ocean of the Southern Hemisphere and northern North Atlantic. In sharp contrast, warming is large over the Arctic Ocean, yielding large inter-hemispheric asymmetry. Although it is very encouraging that the geographical distribution of simulated warming has begun to agree with observations, it has been difficult to confirm the agreement. This is attributable in no small part to the fact that the density and frequency of the observations are far from sufficient in many oceanic region of the world, in particular, in the Circumpolar Ocean of the Southern Hemisphere. For reliable evaluation of the model projection of global warming, it is essential to place increasing emphasis upon the monitoring of the interior as well as the surface of the global oceans
This presentation explores the role of the ocean in global warming using climate models, in which a general circulation model of the ocean is combined with that of the atmosphere. I show that the ocean delays global warming in those regions of the ocean where water mixes deeply through convection and/or isopycnal mixing. For example, the warming is delayed greatly and is small over very extensive regions in the Circumpolar Ocean of the Southern Hemisphere and northern North Atlantic. In sharp contrast, warming is large over the Arctic Ocean, yielding large inter-hemispheric asymmetry. Although it is very encouraging that the geographical distribution of simulated warming has begun to agree with observations, it has been difficult to confirm the agreement. This is attributable in no small part to the fact that the density and frequency of the observations are far from sufficient in many oceanic region of the world, in particular, in the Circumpolar Ocean of the Southern Hemisphere. For reliable evaluation of the model projection of global warming, it is essential to place increasing emphasis upon the monitoring of the interior as well as the surface of the global oceans |
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