Professor Emeritus, Department of Atmospheric Sciences - University of Illinois
August 27, 2008
3:00 pm: Conversation and Cookies in Room 108 Atmospheric Sciences Building
3:30 pm: Seminar in Room 144 Loomis Lab
The Artic has emerged as one of the focal points of climate change in recent years. An amplified warming, substantial reduction of summer sea ice coverage and increased areas of melt on Greenland are some of the more widely cited changes. While climate models indicate that the Arctic should be the vanguard of greenhouse-driven climate change, the projected rates of future change vary widely in the Arctic. Three sources of uncertainty are (1) across-model variance, (2) natural variability over interannual to multidecadal timescales and (3) uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations. We will assess the models’ simulations of Artic climate in the context of these uncertainties, and will address the strategies for optimally aggregating the simulations by different climate models as a possible approach to narrowing the range of projected changes. The discussion will target the challenging question: Is “model democracy” the best approach to climate projection?
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