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Jeffrey Trapp
Associate Professor, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences – Purdue University
November 14, 2007
3:00 pm: Conversation and Cookies in Room 109 ASB
3:30 pm: Seminar in Room 144 Loomis Lab
This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the
United States might change due to enhanced global radiative forcing associated
with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. Global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model are used to examine the larger-scale (or,
environmental) meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm
formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st
century in the number of days (NDSEV) in which these environmental conditions
occur. Attributed primarily to increases in low-level atmospheric water-vapor flux, the largest increases in NDSEV are shown during the summer season, in
proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal regions. For example, this
analysis suggests a future increase in NDSEV of 100% or more in locations such
as Atlanta, Georgia and New York, New York. Any direct application of these
results to the frequency of actual storms must also consider the storm initiation. |
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